Those who don’t put much stock in a groundhog’s shadow, may prefer the spring predictions of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, first published in the 1790s. What kind of spring are they predicting for Kewanee residents?

Warmer and drier than normal.

According to the Almanac, the U.S. spring outlook predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country with the exception of southern and central California, Desert southwest, southern Florida and the western Ohio Valley, where it will be near to below normal.

Although much of the country will experience more rainfall than usual, dry conditions are expected in the Heartland region, that includes Kewanee. Other areas such as upper New England, southern Florida, Texas-Oklahoma and the western Ohio Valley can expect less precipitation as well.

According to the Almanac, the Heartland, which includes Iowa, Missouri, eastern Kansas, Nebraska and a part of Illinois, can expect a warm spring. However rainfall will be below normal across the region and those hot and dry conditions will likely continue through the summer.

How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?

The answer is better than a groundhog. While the accuracy of Punxsutawney Phil is only 39 percent, the Old Farmer’s Almanac claims that the “accuracy in forecasting the direction of precipitation departures from normal for a representative city in each region is 83.3 percent. Their anomalous forecast for a very wet winter in the Atlantic Corridor was very accurate.

“Overall, our accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of temperature departure for a representative city in each region was 44.4%,” they wrote.

To make their long-range predictions, they derive their weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of the Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, way back in 1792.

Whether Kewanee’s spring will be warmer and drier than normal, as predicted by the Almanac, or still weeks away, as predicted by a groundhog, remains to be seen. But with February upon us, one thing can be said about spring: it’s just around the corner now.